ASDForecast
15m Solana Binary Prediction Market
SOL/USD (15m Change)
Next Reset
Share Market
Previous Frames
| Time (Close) | Result | Open | Close | Volume | Your Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waiting for first frame close... | |||||
Fuel the Fire
Global Damage Report
🏆 Top 5 Degens
| User | Bets | Win % | Total Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loading Leaderboard... | |||
The room is on fire. The price of Solana is moving. Predict if the candle will close HIGHER (This is Fine) or LOWER (It Burns) relative to the start of the 15-minute frame. Frames are aligned to the blockchain timestamp and operate in a continuous 15-minute cycle. The "Open Price" is locked exactly at the start of the frame, and the "Close Price" is determined at the moment the frame ends.
This is a peer-to-peer parimutuel market. There is no "House" taking the other side of your bet; you are betting against other users. Winners divide the losers' money proportionally.
- Shares: You buy "Shares" of a direction (UP or DOWN). One Share represents a claim on a portion of the final pot.
- Dynamic Pricing: The cost of 1 Share is not fixed. It fluctuates based on the ratio of money in the UP pool vs the DOWN pool. If 90% of the money is on UP, UP shares are expensive (low reward), and DOWN shares are cheap (high reward).
- No Odds Until Close: Unlike fixed-odds betting, your final payout multiplier is determined by the pool state at the moment the frame closes.
The system maintains a constant invariant: Price(UP) + Price(DOWN) = 0.1 SOL.
Note: A small virtual liquidity buffer (50 shares) is applied to both sides at the start of a frame to prevent infinite price swings on the very first bet.
- THE ASH PILE (FEES): 5.52% of the Total Volume (all wagers combined) is deducted automatically. This revenue is sent to the Fee Wallet to buy back and burn $ASDFASDFA.
- House Reserve: 0.48% is retained to cover Solana network rent and transaction gas fees.
- The Winner's Pot: The remaining 94% of the Total Volume is the pot.
- Distribution: the pot is then distributed to winners divided among them based on how many shares they own, proportional to the total amount of winning shares.
- TOTAL MELTDOWN (FLAT MARKET): If the Open Price and Close Price are identical (0.00% Change), nobody wins. The house burns down. 99% of the pot is sent to the incinerator (Fee Wallet).
- THE HEDGE PARADOX: If you hold an exact equal amount of UP and DOWN shares (a flat position), you have signaled no conviction. The system treats this as a LOSS, regardless of the outcome. You will receive 0 payout.
The Situation: The market is bullish. 90 SOL is on UP, 10 SOL is on DOWN.
Your Bet: You bet 1 SOL on UP.
The Outcome: UP Wins.
The Math: The Pot is ~94 SOL. You own roughly 1.1% of the winning pool.
Result: You receive ~1.04 SOL back. A small, safe 4% profit.
The Situation: The market is bullish (90 SOL UP vs 10 SOL DOWN).
Your Bet: You bet 1 SOL on DOWN (The Underdog).
The Outcome: DOWN Wins.
The Math: The Pot is ~94 SOL. You own roughly 10% of the winning pool (since the pool is small).
Result: You receive ~9.40 SOL back. A massive 840% profit for betting against the crowd.
This platform is currently LIVE on Solana Mainnet. The operators are not responsible for lost funds, smart contract errors, oracle latency, or network failures.
PREDICT RESPONSIBLY: Never wager funds you cannot afford to lose. This is an experimental technology demonstration.
